Anytime & First Goalscorer Tips

A goalscorer prediction is a bet on which player will score: at any time in the match, first, or last. The picks above name the player, the market and the price; this guide explains how each market settles, the rules that cause disputes and the evidence we need before tipping a player to score.

Anytime, first and last goalscorer compared

First and last scorer pay more because many players can score the first goal, and the match might finish 0–0. Most of our picks are anytime scorers, since that market rewards the player’s overall threat rather than the timing of one goal.

Rules that decide goalscorer bets

Own goals

Own goals usually do not count for any player. In first goalscorer markets, if the first goal is an own goal, most bookmakers settle on the next goal scored by a player, though some settle on the own goal as “no scorer” for that leg. Read your bookmaker’s wording.

Penalties

A penalty scored during the match counts as a goal for the taker. Goals in a penalty shoot-out never count, and extra-time goals are normally excluded from 90-minute markets.

Non-starters and late substitutes

Rules here vary most. Many bookmakers void an anytime bet if the player takes no part, while some only void it if he does not start. For first goalscorer, a player who comes on after the first goal has been scored is often made void, because he never had a chance. Check the rules on your betting site and confirm line-ups before staking.

What we check before tipping a scorer

1. Expected goals per 90. xG tells us how many good chances a player gets, which is steadier than his recent goal tally.
2. Shots and touches in the box. A player who shoots from close range converts more often than one who shoots from distance.
3. Penalty duty. The regular penalty taker gets a free extra chance whenever his side wins a spot kick.
4. Minutes. A striker likely to be rested at the hour mark loses about a third of his scoring time.
5. Opponent and team total. We check the opponent’s goals and xG conceded, and the bookmaker’s team goals line as a guide to the expected score.
6. Price check. We convert the odds into a probability, as explained in our odds guide, and only tip when our estimate is higher.

Why defenders and midfielders sometimes appear in our picks

Bookmakers price strikers tightly because most punters back them. A centre-back who attacks every corner, or an attacking midfielder who takes penalties, can be priced at 5.00 or more when his real chance is better than that. These are higher-risk picks with lower confidence scores, and we flag them in the one-line reason.

Odds and worked examples in Naira

Splitting a stake between the two markets is one way to get some return if your player scores but not first. With ₦500 anytime at 2.10 and ₦500 first scorer at 5.50, a goal that is not the opener returns ₦1,050 on ₦1,000 staked, while the opening goal returns ₦3,800. If he does not score, both lose.

Linking a scorer pick to the expected scoreline

A player can only score if his team scores, so we always start from the team’s expected goals. If a bookmaker prices a side to score about 2.5 goals, its main striker might take a third or more of the team’s shots, which gives a rough upper limit on his chance. If the team is expected to score once, even a prolific forward becomes a much weaker anytime pick.

This also helps you compare prices. When the team’s over 1.5 goals line is short but the striker’s anytime price is long, either the striker is underpriced or the team’s goals are shared widely. Our over 1.5 explainer shows how team and match goal lines work.

For last goalscorer, late substitutes matter more than usual. A fresh forward who comes on with 20 minutes left against tired defenders can score the final goal, but bookmakers settle the bet as a loss if the match ends 0–0 or the last goal goes to someone else. Rules on substitutes in this market vary, so read them before betting.

Common goalscorer betting mistakes

• Chasing a hot streak. A player who scored in four straight games can be overpriced if his xG did not support it.
• Ignoring rotation. Midweek European fixtures often mean weekend rest for star forwards.
• Backing first scorer on a heavy favourite’s striker only. Several team-mates share that first goal.
• Adding scorers to accumulators. Even the best striker fails to score in many matches, which is why we keep scorer picks out of our big odds slips and every other slip.

Reading the goalscorer picks and our hand-settled results

Each pick lists the player, the market (anytime, first or last), the odds taken and a 1 to 5 confidence score. Goalscorer picks cannot be settled from the final score alone, so an editor checks who scored, whether own goals were involved and whether the player started, then marks the pick won, lost or void in the results table above.

If you would rather back goals without picking a player, see our over 1.5 goals tips or the correct score picks. Shooting volume is covered separately in our shots on target tips.