Shots on Target Tips

A shots on target bet backs a player or a team to register more, or fewer, shots on target than the bookmaker’s line. The picks above cover both team and player lines; this page explains what counts, the void rules that catch punters out and the numbers that make a good pick.

What counts as a shot on target

Bookmakers generally define a shot on target as a deliberate attempt that either scores or would have scored if the goalkeeper, or the last defender, had not stopped it. Under that definition:

• A goal counts, including most direct free kicks.
• A save by the goalkeeper counts.
• A shot that hits the post or crossbar usually does not, unless it goes in or is then stopped on the line.
• A shot blocked by an outfield defender who is not the last man does not count.
• Own goals are never credited to the attacking player.

Bookmakers use different data providers, and they treat edge cases such as saved penalties, deflections and headers cleared off the line in their own way. Exact rules vary by bookmaker, so read the player statistics section of your betting site before you stake.

Team and player shots on target lines

Player lines are the more popular of the two because the price on a single striker can look attractive. They are also the most fragile, because one substitution changes everything.

Void rules when a player does not start

Many bookmakers void player shots on target bets if the player does not start, and return your stake. Others treat any player who comes on as a participant, so a substitute who plays ten minutes and has no shot loses you the bet. Once a player starts, the bet almost always stands even if he is taken off after 20 minutes.

Because these rules differ, wait for confirmed line-ups, usually about an hour before kick-off, before placing player bets. Our player picks are published on the expectation that the player starts; if he does not, the pick is marked void in the results table above.

How we build a shots on target pick

1. Shots per 90 minutes. Volume matters more than finishing. A forward who shoots four times a game has more chances to hit the target.
2. Accuracy rate. The share of a player’s shots that hit the target, over a decent sample.
3. Expected minutes. A player likely to be rested after an hour has fewer chances; fixture congestion and recent minutes tell us a lot.
4. Opponent’s defence. Shots and shots on target conceded per game by the other side.
5. Set-piece duties. Free-kick and penalty takers get extra attempts that other players do not.
6. Game state. A big favourite usually keeps shooting while the underdog may manage only two or three efforts.

Prices you can expect, with examples

For a regular starting striker, 1+ shot on target commonly pays between about 1.50 and 2.20. The 2+ line often pays 2.50 to 4.00. Team totals on a main line sit near evens.

Shots on target in bet builders and different competitions

Player shots on target lines are popular legs in bet builders, where you combine several markets from one match. The odds multiply, as in an accumulator, but the legs are linked: if a favourite dominates, its striker’s shots and the team’s corners tend to rise together. Bookmakers know this and often reduce the combined price, so a builder is rarely as generous as it looks.

Competition type matters as well. Knockout ties can be cagey in the first leg and open in the second, and a team protecting an aggregate lead often shoots far less than its league average. In group stages of competitions such as the Champions League, a big gap in quality usually means one side takes most of the shots.

Finally, remember that a team can dominate possession and still record few shots on target if its attempts come from long range or are blocked. Shot location is as useful as shot count, which is why we look at touches in the box and expected goals alongside raw shooting numbers. The same pressure often shows up in the corner count, because blocked shots frequently go behind.

Where shots on target bets go wrong

• Backing the 2+ line on a forward who averages two shots a game. He needs both to be on target.
• Placing player bets before line-ups. At bookmakers that settle substitutes as runners, a benched player can lose you the stake.
• Confusing shots with shots on target. Many sites list both markets side by side.
• Combining player lines in a bet builder without checking how the bookmaker treats a void leg.

Using the shots on target picks above

Each pick shows the player or team, the line, the odds taken and a 1 to 5 confidence score. The one-line reason tells you the main driver, such as shot volume or a weak defence. These picks cannot be settled from the final score, so an editor checks the match statistics and records the result by hand.

If you like the attacking angle but prefer a market that settles on the scoreline, look at our player to score picks or GG picks. For a reminder of how to judge a price, see how to read betting odds.