No-Vig Calculator

NVNo-vig calculatorUpdates as you type

2-way3-way (1X2)

Outcome 1Fair %-Fair odds-

Outcome 2Fair %-Fair odds-

Overround removed-

Margin removed-

The no vig calculator removes the bookmaker’s margin (the vig, short for vigorish) from a market so you can see the fair odds hidden behind the prices. Enter the odds of every outcome in a 2-way or 3-way market and it returns each outcome’s fair probability and fair odds, plus how much overround and margin it took out.

How to use the no vig calculator

1. Choose 2-way or 3-way. Over/under and GG/NG are 2-way; 1X2 is 3-way.
2. Enter every price from one bookmaker. All outcomes, same match, same moment.
3. Read the fair column. Each outcome gets a fair probability (the set adds up to 100%) and fair odds.
4. Note what was removed. The overround and margin lines show the size of the cut that has been stripped out.

How to remove the vig: the proportional method

The tool uses the proportional method, the simplest and most transparent way to devig a market. Each price is turned into a raw percentage with 1 ÷ odds, the raw percentages are added up, and each one is divided by that total so the set sums to exactly 100%. Fair odds are then 1 ÷ fair probability.

A 3-way example on a 1X2 market

Take home 1.90, draw 3.40, away 4.20. The fair probabilities come out at 49.7% / 27.8% / 22.5%, and the fair odds at 2.01 / 3.60 / 4.45. Every fair price is a little longer than the bookmaker’s, because the margin has been handed back.

A lopsided 2-way market

Over 2.5 at 1.72 and under 2.5 at 2.15 have a book of 104.7%. Removing the vig gives 55.6% / 44.4%, fair odds of 1.80 / 2.25, an overround of 4.7% and a margin of 4.4%.

Using fair odds to spot value

Fair odds from one bookmaker become a yardstick for another. If the fair home price above is 2.01 and a second site offers 2.10, that price pays more than the market’s fair view. Using the fair probability of 49.7%, the expected value is 0.497 × 2.10 − 1 = about +0.044, or roughly ₦44 per ₦1,000 staked over the long run.

Small edges like that need many bets to show up and can vanish if the first bookmaker’s prices were poor to begin with. Confirm a price with the expected value tool and size it carefully with the Kelly stake calculator.

Fair odds for double chance and other combined markets

Fair probabilities can be added to price combined outcomes. From the 1X2 example above, home or draw (1X) has a fair chance of 49.7% + 27.8% = 77.5%, which is fair odds of 1 ÷ 0.775 = 1.29. If your bookmaker’s double chance 1X price is 1.22, you can see at a glance that it carries its own margin on top. The same check works for draw no bet and for comparing a GG price with the fair figure from a busy market. For what double chance covers, read double chance explained.

Limits of fair odds

• The margin is not spread evenly in real life. Bookmakers often load more of it onto outsiders, the favourite-longshot bias, so the proportional fair odds on a big underdog can still be a touch short.
• Other methods exist. Power, additive and Shin methods share out the margin differently and can give slightly different fair odds, especially for long shots. The proportional method is the standard starting point.
• Fair odds are only as good as the market. A thin market on a lower league, or a stale price, produces fair odds that are fair only on paper.

No-vig odds compared with implied probability and margin

Implied probability is the raw percentage of a single price with the margin still inside, so a full market adds up to more than 100%; the single-price probability tool shows it. The margin calculator measures the cut and compares bookmakers. This page is the third step: it removes the cut to leave a fair price for each outcome.

To see how a fair price translates into a Naira payout, use the return calculator. For the basics of decimal prices, see our guide to betting odds, and for the full list of calculators visit the tools hub.