Over/Under 1.5 Goals Tips
Today's over 1.5 prediction list, plus under 1.5 and first-half over 1.5 picks where the data supports them, each with odds, confidence and a settled result.
Top Over/Under 1.5 Goals Tips
20 selections
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1
Udinese vs Roma Roma have made a much stronger league start than Udinese.Over 1.5 1.17
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2
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Bayern's strong home price accompanies an over-2.5 line of just 1.29.Over 1.5 1.04
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3
Real Betis vs Malaga Betis held Celta scoreless last weekend and have a substantial home-market advantage.Over 1.5 1.14
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4
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Tottenham enter after wins over Chelsea and Coventry while Palace recently conceded five.Over 1.5 1.19
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5
Barcelona vs Deportivo Alaves Barcelona remain strong home favourites despite their recent Clasico defeat.Over 1.5 1.04
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6
Como vs Venezia Como have won six of nine league games while Venezia have lost eight.Over 1.5 1.11
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7
Lazio vs Cagliari Lazio have won eight of their first nine league fixtures.Over 1.5 1.24
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8
Lyon vs Angers Lyon have beaten Nice and Auxerre at home this season.Over 1.5 1.17
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9
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV Frankfurt have a clear home-market advantage and the goals line favours an open match.Over 1.5 1.10
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10
Atalanta vs Parma Parma have scored only five goals in nine league matches.Over 1.5 1.21
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11
Lorient vs Brest Lorient have kept three consecutive league clean sheets against Paris FC Monaco and Angers.Over 1.5 1.32
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12
Milan vs Inter Inter's early-season results give them the stronger form profile entering the derby.Over 1.5 1.21
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13
Troyes vs Le Mans Troyes have struggled for goals at home but Le Mans have also conceded regularly.Over 1.5 1.30
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14
Aston Villa vs Fulham Villa beat Manchester City 2-1 in their previous league match.Over 1.5 1.21
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15
Getafe vs Sevilla Getafe offer limited attacking output while Sevilla won their previous league match 2-0.Over 1.5 1.56
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16
Frosinone vs Torino Frosinone have scored 22 goals in nine league matches.Over 1.5 1.11
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17
Strasbourg vs Auxerre Strasbourg are favoured at home despite losing 3-0 to Rennes last weekend.Over 1.5 1.18
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18
Union Berlin vs FC Koln The teams are priced closely and their both-teams-to-score market is relatively short.Over 1.5 1.19
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19
Paris FC vs Monaco Paris FC beat Strasbourg at home while Monaco drew 1-1 with Lille last weekend.Over 1.5 1.25
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20
Liverpool vs Arsenal Both clubs have won seven of their last ten league matches.Over 1.5 1.28
18+ · Odds can change, check them with your bookmaker before you bet. No pick is guaranteed.
Ligue 1
PSG beat Lyon 2-0 on Monday; Le Havre conceded four to Marseille last round.
Troyes have struggled for goals at home but Le Mans have also conceded regularly.
Strasbourg are favoured at home despite losing 3-0 to Rennes last weekend.
Paris FC beat Strasbourg at home while Monaco drew 1-1 with Lille last weekend.
Lyon have beaten Nice and Auxerre at home this season.
LaLiga
Villarreal beat Valencia 2-1 away while Espanyol lost 2-1 to Racing Santander.
Betis held Celta scoreless last weekend and have a substantial home-market advantage.
Barcelona remain strong home favourites despite their recent Clasico defeat.
Getafe offer limited attacking output while Sevilla won their previous league match 2-0.
Bundesliga
Elversberg lost 4-0 at Leipzig; Mainz lost 3-2 at home to Werder Bremen.
Bayern's strong home price accompanies an over-2.5 line of just 1.29.
The teams are priced closely and their both-teams-to-score market is relatively short.
Frankfurt have a clear home-market advantage and the goals line favours an open match.
Serie A
Roma have made a much stronger league start than Udinese.
Inter's early-season results give them the stronger form profile entering the derby.
Como have won six of nine league games while Venezia have lost eight.
Frosinone have scored 22 goals in nine league matches.
Lazio have won eight of their first nine league fixtures.
Premier League
Tottenham enter after wins over Chelsea and Coventry while Palace recently conceded five.
Villa beat Manchester City 2-1 in their previous league match.
Both clubs have won seven of their last ten league matches.
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Results: last 30 days
2 of 3 settled predictions won. Every pick stays on record.
| Date | Match | Prediction | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct | Elversberg vs Mainz | Over 1.5 | 4-1 | Won | |
| 30 Oct | Villarreal vs Espanyol | Over 1.5 | 0-1 | Lost | |
| 30 Oct | Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain | Over 1.5 | 1-5 | Won |
On this page
- What over 1.5 and under 1.5 pay
- The maths of short odds: your break-even strike rate
- How we choose an over 1.5 pick worth posting
- When under 1.5 makes sense
- First-half over 1.5: a different bet entirely
- Over 1.5 in 2-odds slips and rollovers
- Common over 1.5 mistakes
- Reading the picks and results table above
An over 1.5 prediction backs a match to produce two goals or more, so it wins far more often than higher goal lines but pays short odds. The picks above list the games where we rate two goals clearly more likely than the price suggests, and the occasional under 1.5 where a tight, cagey game is the better read.
What over 1.5 and under 1.5 pay
Over 1.5 wins on any score with two or more goals, such as 1–1, 2–0 or 3–1. Under 1.5 wins only on 0–0, 1–0 or 0–1. Our learn pages explain how the over 1.5 line works and how under goal lines settle in more detail.
Typical prices for over 1.5 run from about 1.15 in open fixtures to 1.45 in cagey ones. Under 1.5 is the long side, usually somewhere between 2.60 and 4.50.
The maths of short odds: your break-even strike rate
Short prices hide a simple trap. At 1.25, a ₦4,000 stake returns ₦5,000, which is ₦1,000 profit. One loss costs ₦4,000, so it takes four winners to recover it. Before you back any short-priced pick, know the strike rate you need just to stay level.
| Odds | Break-even win rate | Wins to cover 1 loss |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | 83.3% | 5 |
| 1.30 | 76.9% | 3.3 |
| 1.40 | 71.4% | 2.5 |
| 1.50 | 66.7% | 2 |
In a high-scoring league such as the Premier League, roughly three matches in four, often more, go over 1.5 in a typical season. Lower-scoring leagues sit well below that; home-dominated competitions such as the Nigerian top flight tend to produce more 1–0 results, which our NPFL picks take into account. So a pick at 1.20 is only worth taking when the specific match profile is stronger than the league average.
How we choose an over 1.5 pick worth posting
- Check the 0–0 and 1–0 rate. We look at how many of each team’s last ten matches ended with fewer than two goals, home and away separately.
- Add the two xG figures. When the home side’s xG for plus the away side’s xG for, adjusted by each defence’s xG against, projects above about 2.6 goals, over 1.5 becomes a strong candidate.
- Look at first-goal timing. Teams that often score before half-time force the opponent to open up, which helps the second goal arrive.
- Check conditions. Heavy rain on a poor pitch, extreme afternoon heat or a dead-rubber squad rotation can all slow a match down.
- Compare our chance with the price. If we rate a game at 85% and the odds are 1.22 (82% implied), it qualifies; at 1.15 (87% implied), it does not.
When under 1.5 makes sense
We post under 1.5 rarely, but it can be the value side. The profile we look for is two low-xG teams, usually below one goal each per game, in a match where a draw suits at least one of them. Cup second legs where the leading side defends, relegation six-pointers late in the season and fixtures in heavy rain fit that pattern.
Example Under 1.5 at 3.20 with a ₦1,000 stake returns ₦3,200 if the game ends 0–0, 1–0 or 0–1, a profit of ₦2,200. One winner covers two losing stakes of the same size.
First-half over 1.5: a different bet entirely
First-half over 1.5 needs two goals before the break, and many first halves produce one goal or none. That is why it usually pays somewhere from about 2.20 to 3.20 even in high-scoring fixtures. We only consider it when both teams start fast, often concede early and the match has a strong favourite likely to attack from kick-off. Do not treat it as a “safer” version of full-time over 2.5; it is closer to the opposite.
The data for this bet is first-half only: how often each team’s matches reach two goals by half-time, how many goals each side scores in the opening 15 minutes, and whether the favourite usually starts on the front foot or waits. A team that scores most of its goals after the break is a poor choice here, even with a strong season average.
Over 1.5 in 2-odds slips and rollovers
Over 1.5 is the most common building block in low-odds slips. Two picks at 1.40 make 1.96, which is how many punters build a daily 2 odds slip. The catch is that the chances multiply as well: two 80% picks land together only 64% of the time.
A four-day rollover at 1.30 per day turns ₦1,000 into ₦2,856, but if each day has an 80% chance, the whole run survives only about 41% of the time. Our rollover betting guide shows how to size each stage.
Before you add a fourth or fifth short pick to a slip, enter the prices into the accumulator calculator to see how little each extra leg adds to the total odds.
Common over 1.5 mistakes
- Treating 1.20 as “free money” and staking several times your usual amount.
- Backing over 1.5 in defensive cup ties just because both clubs are famous.
- Adding over 1.5 legs to fill a slip rather than because each has value on its own.
- Ignoring that the line changes the bet: if you want more odds, our over 2.5 goals tips need one more goal but pay roughly 0.40 to 0.70 more.
Reading the picks and results table above
Each pick shows the line (over 1.5, under 1.5 or first-half over 1.5), the odds we took and a confidence rating. A 4 or 5 here means the match profile clears the break-even rate comfortably. The results table above records the final score for every pick, so you can count exactly how many lost to a 1–0 or a 0–0. For matches where we expect goals at both ends, compare with our GG picks.
Use the market filter buttons to show only over/under 1.5 picks for yesterday, today, tomorrow or the weekend. Checking yesterday’s tab against the results table is a quick way to see how the line performed across a full day of matches, rather than judging it on the one game you watched.
More betting tips
Frequently asked questions
Leagues with high goal averages, often near three per game, see most matches clear two goals, while some second divisions and African leagues produce more 1–0 and 0–0 results. Averages change each season, so we use current-season data for each league rather than a fixed list.
It depends on the odds. At an average price of 1.30 you need to win about 77% of picks just to break even, and at 1.25 you need 80%. Judge any tipster's over 1.5 record against the odds taken, not the raw hit rate alone.
Yes. Over 1.5 counts total goals from both teams, so 1–1 makes two goals and the bet wins. The only scores that lose are 0–0, 1–0 and 0–1. The over 1.5 explainer lists every outcome.
Finals and two-legged deciders can be cautious, but not always. We look at both teams' xG and the stakes: if neither team creates much and a single goal could decide the trophy, under 1.5 can offer value at odds above 3.00.
Bookmakers price that short when both teams score and concede freely, so two goals are very likely. At 1.10 the implied chance is about 91%, and you need to win ten bets to cover one loss. We rarely post picks that short.